I need some help in try to estimate some probabilities. I am trying to find the amount of home field advantage given when it comes to the pre game probability that the home team will when the game.
In other words if the bookmaker gives teamA a .25 chance of beating teamB when teamB is the home team what would the probablity of teamA beating teamB if teamA was the home team or if the game was on a neutral field?
I have a few seasons worth of odds data from which I can compute the probability of the outcomes going in the game. For every possible matchup in the league I took the average of the away probabilities and the average of the home probabilities and filtered out the duplicate games. This is an example of the data.
GameId AwayWP HomeWP 1 0.403941 0.687718 2 0.369619 0.686870 3 0.386640 0.515152 4 0.448006 0.671919 5 0.394960 0.605040 6 0.277475 0.541345
Obviously a linear model wont work well. I thinking I will need to use logarithms some way but don't know how.