Does anyone have an example of real world (ideally multivariate) time-series data that depends on its past in a non-linear, but additive way?
I understand that there are several examples of non-linear series in the literature on chaos and other literatures in the sciences, but I'm looking to find data in finance or economics, for example, where typical VARMA modeling does an okay (but not good enough) job of fully capturing the dependence relationship in the data. Hopefully, I'm not placing too many constraints here...
Specifically, has anyone come across data where a second-order stationary—by which I mean stationary either naturally or after some other transformation—series $z_t \in \mathbb{R}^n$ ($n \geq 2$) is such that $$z_t - \sum_i \hat{f}_i(z_{t-i})= \epsilon_t - \sum_j \hat{g}(\epsilon_{t-j})$$ for some true functions $f(\cdot)$ and $g(\cdot)$ that may perhaps be approximated by their first-order Taylor expansions, but which are not truly linear?
The motivation here is to find an opportunity to exercise use of Hastie and Tibshirani's (1989) generalized additive model, but on time-dependent data as opposed to cross-sectional data.