Currently I put hourly traffic (total number of input requests) of my website in a MySQL table. I keep data for the last 90 days.

I want to check every hour, lets say 6th hour, that whether the traffic has increased/decreased beyond some threshold than last 7 days or last 30 days 6th hour traffic. Basically, I see a pattern of traffic. Different hours have different values.

I am thinking of keeping running average of last 7 days / last 30 days in a MySQL table for every hour. And according, write a script to generate alerts based on those numbers. I am not very sure whether I should be using mean, median or standard deviation. Can someone enlighten me there?

Mean will have a problem that if one day traffic increases by a big margin, it will keep on sending alerts for multiple days after that. So, I am thinking to ignore mean. What kind of statistics techniques should I explore/ commonly used? Should I considering moving average or moving standard deviation?


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