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I'm running a mediation in SPSS as per Baron and Kenny's guidelines (using regression). X is a dichotomous variable; M and Y are continuous.

  • Step 1) X-->Y (r = .07, p = .03)
  • Step 2) X-->M (r = .45, p < .001)
  • Step 3) M-->Y (r = .31, p < .001)
  • Step 4) X-->Y (beta = -.09, p =.01); M-->Y (beta = .35, p<.001)

Based on previous research, X is consistently linked to Y; though, M is theorized to account for most of this relationship. I'm struggling with the interpretation, specifically why the relationship reversed and remained significant. Does it have something to do with X being dichotomous and/or the initial relationship from X-->Y being small?

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Have tried doing a mediation analysis with regression? Typically the way mediation is concluded is by running three regressions (instead of correlations):x predicting y, x and mediator predicting y, and x predicting mediator. If you find that x significantly predictors y by themselves, but that it does not significantly predict y when the mediator is added, and x also significantly predicts the mediator, then you can conclude mediation. Also, as far as the interpretation goes it depends on what your variables are, and is highly subjective. I hope that helps at least some.

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  • $\begingroup$ Thanks for your comment, costebk08. I got the same results via regression. Based on that definition, I believe I can conclude mediation. However, I am still perplexed on the reversal of the "causal" X variable here. I'm beginning to think it may just be an artifact of how we measured the X variable. However, I'd be interested to hear if 1) anyone else has experienced this and can provide an example, and/or 2) can direct me to literature on findings like this? Thanks. $\endgroup$
    – jsd
    Jun 30, 2015 at 21:58

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