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I have built an ARIMA model in R with the "forecast" package's auto.arima() function. I want to simulate the ARIMA model with the same starting values as the original time series. For example, if my original time series has values from time 0 to time 2000, I want the ARIMA model to simulate the same time period (0 to 2000). If the ARIMA model is ARIMA(5,0,1), I want the values from time 0 to time 4 to be retained in the ARIMA model and the model simulates from that point on using those first 5 points.

I appreciate your help!

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  • $\begingroup$ You may be interested in this post, which gives an example for an AR model. $\endgroup$ – javlacalle Jul 2 '15 at 20:10
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Try this:

library(forecast)
fit <- auto.arima(wineind)
plot(wineind)
lines(simulate(fit,future=FALSE), col='red')

enter image description here

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