I'm a reading a beginner book about bayesian statistics (Think Bayes by Allen Downey). At the very beginning it reads:
Epidemiologist have identified many factors that affect the risk of heart attacks; depending on those factors, my risk might be higher or lower than average. I am male, 45 old, and I have borderline high cholesterol. Those factors increase my chances. However, I have low blood pressure and I don't smoke, and those factors decrease my chances.
I guess that "Epidemiologist have identified many factors that affect the risk of heart attacks" means that epidemiologist have found positive correlations between e.g. high cholesterol and heart attacks.
However, such a correlation does not necessarily mean that if I decrease somehow my cholesterol my probabilities heart attack will decrease. Am I right?