I’m trying to figure out if I can combine linear regression and a time series model to help make predictions about the number of shots in a soccer game.
When I perform the linear regression, I have some highly significant independent variables (such as home/on the road, possession) and then I’m left with some residuals that appear to show significant auto-correlation with one another (particularly when I test for PACF).
What I can’t get my head around is how, and if, I can combine these two techniques to assist in my prediction.
Previously I was thinking I would figure out what lags/ARIMA model I should be using (it’s looking like a (2,0,0)) and then apply the AR2 to the residuals (or even the whole of the dependent variable) to produce a new independent variable that I then use in the linear regression. But this doesn’t seem mathematically sound.
So, instead what should I do? If I know, for example, that the next player’s game is at home, his team is predicted to get 60% possession and the residuals from a regression (of the aforementioned significant variables) show a significant AR2 correlation, how should I appropriately leverage this information to produce an optimal prediction of his shots?