2
$\begingroup$

Recently I tried to fit some points which (from the plot) seems linearly distributed. The fit result (in R) is:

Residuals:
    Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max 
-112223   -2532    2021    3698   83241 

Coefficients:
              Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
(Intercept) -6.623e+03  7.136e+02  -9.282   <2e-16 ***
population   5.946e-02  4.278e-04 138.986   <2e-16 ***
---
Signif. codes:  0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1

Residual standard error: 12780 on 379 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-squared:  0.9808,    Adjusted R-squared:  0.9807 
F-statistic: 1.932e+04 on 1 and 379 DF,  p-value: < 2.2e-16

With $R^2$ 0.98. Nice! BUT I checked the OLS assumptions and from the graph I have heteroscedasticity (top-left and bottom-left graph) and I have no normality of errors (top-right graph).

enter image description here

So I transformed the dependent and independent variables with log transformation. I now have a model which meet all the assumptions but it is more complicated (exponential fit?) and with lower $R^2$: 0.96.

Residuals:
     Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max 
-0.37058 -0.06061 -0.00701  0.05532  0.44428 

Coefficients:
               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
(Intercept)    -2.08467    0.06153  -33.88   <2e-16 ***
log_population  1.12146    0.01120  100.12   <2e-16 ***
---
Signif. codes:  0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1

Residual standard error: 0.101 on 379 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-squared:  0.9636,    Adjusted R-squared:  0.9635 
F-statistic: 1.002e+04 on 1 and 379 DF,  p-value: < 2.2e-16

Which is the best? Is the first model wrong, and why?

$\endgroup$
8
  • 4
    $\begingroup$ What do you mean by best? Causal effects? Prediction? Fit? The $R^2$ is very poor indication of any of these "bests"... $\endgroup$
    – Repmat
    Commented Dec 21, 2015 at 9:13
  • 2
    $\begingroup$ See stats.stackexchange.com/questions/13314/… $\endgroup$
    – Tim
    Commented Dec 21, 2015 at 9:27
  • $\begingroup$ What kind of data is that? By any chance, are you regressing one random walk on another? $\endgroup$ Commented Dec 21, 2015 at 10:09
  • 1
    $\begingroup$ What happens to $R^2$ when you remove observation 249 from the dataset and refit the models? $\endgroup$
    – whuber
    Commented Dec 21, 2015 at 13:11
  • $\begingroup$ @Repmat Causal effect (?) and fit... $\endgroup$
    – marcodena
    Commented Dec 22, 2015 at 9:08

0

Your Answer

By clicking “Post Your Answer”, you agree to our terms of service and acknowledge you have read our privacy policy.

Browse other questions tagged or ask your own question.