# How can I calculate expected finishing order in a board game?

I'm tracking stats for my board game group. I'm using a modified ELO system where I consider each game of multiple players be a group of 1v1 matches between all pairs of players as seen here: http://elo-norsak.rhcloud.com/3.php

Once I have an ELO for each player, For any two player I can calculate the percent chance A will beat B via 1 / (1 + Math.pow(10, EloDifference / 400))

Assuming everybody plays to win, no ganging up, etc, How do I calculate the expected finishing order of the game?

This question calculates who is expected to win. Can I assume the player 2nd most likely to win is most likely to come 2nd, etc?

• "Can I assume the player 2nd most likely to win is most likely to come 2nd, etc?" -- consider a player who cares nothing at all for coming second, regarding it as exactly the same as finishing last. They may be inclined to try more risky strategies that increase both the probability of a win (if the risk comes off) and coming last (if it doesn't), when compared to a player who would prefer to come second than last. Indeed, depending on the sort of game it is, coming last may be the most likely outcome for any player who is the second-most-likely to come first. It's very hard to generalize. Dec 21, 2015 at 22:57