I have daily data for 2 years starting from jan1 2014 till december 31 2015. I want to forecast for next 365 days using this data set. I am using below code.
PROC UCM data=Mydata; id date interval=day; /*set the interval as day*/ model Sold; irregular; level; slope ; cycle period=365.24 rho=1 variance=0 noest=(rho period variance); estimate; forecast lead=365 OUTFOR=Ucmm.DATA; run;
There is a trend based on day of the week and month of the year. How do I specify that? I understand for day of week it can be set as 7. For month how can I specify that, as some months have 31 days while some others have 30 and yet february has 28/29 days. How do I solve this? I know it can be specified using season; command. But how?
Also, how to include impact of certain occasions like Christmas, new year, Thanksgiving etc? I believe
model; command takes care of that as per this paper. How many of these dummy variables can we include? Is there any limit?