I'm trying to come up with a decent method for forecasting a unique seasonal time series that is involving multiple periods of seasonality: Weekly, Monthly, Quarterly and I am stuck because I have daily data that is so seasonal intra-week that the variance I get is way too amplified.
(i.e. Mondays Value > 3x Sunday Value, weekly seasonality resembles a Sawtooth Sine Wave)
I know I need to seasonally adjust this data, and I am in the midst of teaching myself more about time series analysis but I am trying to find a good way to estimate the variance here.
I've hypothesized calculating the variance on a MA series but I'm not quite sure what the implications of that are, or how reliable that transformed number will be. If you have any tips or directions you think I should go on please let me know!