I recently made a website for a game's community. The game basically has an online dragon which people can fight. Each fight chips off a little bit health. On the next encounter with the dragon, people will then report his health status. This is a number from $11$ down to $0$. If the dragon reaches zero, a so-called grace-period will occur where everyone can jump into the game and kill him very easily for some nice rewards.
This site has been going for a small week now and I have gathered about a thousand reports by now, so I felt its time to calculate some stats! The most requested stat is an estimation on when the grace-period will occur.
The idea I have with this is that I want plot a graph on the site, on the $y$-axis a range of $0$ to $11$, on the $x$-axis a range of time. And basically plot all the reports I have with $3$ different lines:
- The health estimation I generate based on all reports
- The health based on the highest reported value
- The health based on the lowest reported value
Doing this is not really a problem, just plot the numbers I have on the graph, where it becomes interesting is doing an estimation beyond these numbers. I could do something like calculate the drop in health between two points, and use that for the downward slope, but it'll be linear and not very accurate (as it wouldn't consider all the previous reports).
I'm therefor looking for some pointers how I can approach this? I tried googling this, but I have a very hard time finding what I need. Probably because I simply lack the knowledge of terms I have to look for. Is there some general use formula for this? How would you approach this yourself? Anything would help me at this point really!
@Moderators: Feel free to add extra tags as I really have no idea.