I'm looking at an astronomical object. In one observation, it does something (not relevant what :) 2199 times out of a possible 2936.
In another (later) observation, it occurred 2094 times out of a possible 2936.
Is it possible to say anything about whether the object has changed at all, or if the change from 2199 to 2094 is just a statistical thing?
Perhaps I have to find the mean of the two = 2146, then approximate by assuming Poisson stats to say that standard deviation = sqrt(2146) = 46. And then I can say that both of the samples above are within 1 sigma of the mean.
This doesn't seem quite fair thought because you are finding a mean FROM the samples, so of course the mean is going to be quite close to both of them.
I was thinking about using binomial stats to find the variance, but I don't know 'p'.