I have to predict the number of items or order size of a customer on a monthly basis. My doubt is which will work better or provide more accurate results - ARIMA/ARIMAX or finding the distribution of the past data and building a probability model based on the said distribution.
I know until both the options are tried, one cannot comment on the accuracy. But for someone with the knowledge and experience having worked on such problems or someone who has the theoretical knowledge of both the above approaches, which is the better option.
I have only knowledge of OLS regression and ANOVA, so please excuse if the question is trivial.
Thanks, appreciate the help.