# What exactly does 'sevenfold-increased odds of baldness' mean?

From this paper:

The one man in seven who harbors risk alleles at both 20p11.22 and AR (encoding the androgen receptor) has a sevenfold-increased odds of androgenic alopecia (OR = 7.12, P = 3.7 x 10(-15)).

If the prior probability of a man going bald is say 50%, what is the posterior probability given that he harbors these risk alleles? $7 * 0.5 = 3.5$ is obviously wrong.

Put another way, if I have these risk alleles how do I calculate my overall probability of going bald?

• Odds are not probability – Glen_b Mar 25 '16 at 10:58
• Possible duplicate of Odds Made Simple – Tim Mar 25 '16 at 11:32

$odds = probability/(1-probability)$
$probability = odds/(1+odds)$
So for your example, a 50% likelihood of baldness would correspond to odds of 1, meaning a $1/2$ chance of baldness. A sevenfold increase would be odds of 7, meaning a $7/8$ chance of baldness.