Generally for linear models, changing the basis doesn't matter:
For linear models, representing your features in your original two-dimensional basis or a new two-dimensional basis from PCA won't change the predictive power. For the purposes of this question, there's nothing special about the PCA basis.
Let $\mathbf{x} = \left[ \begin{array}{c} x_1 \\ x_2 \end{array} \right]$ denote an observation from a two-dimensional feature space.
We can construct a new basis for this two-dimensional space using any set of two linearly independent vectors. These vectors could be from Principal Component Analysis (PCA), but they could also come from elsewhere (as long as they're linearly independent). Let $U$ be a matrix whose columns are vectors of the new basis. Coordinates of our observation $\mathbf{x}$ in terms of the new basis is given by multiplying by the inverse of the matrix $U$.
$$\mathbf{z} = U^{-1} \mathbf{x}$$
In many machine learning contexts, you use linear transformations of your observations to do stuff. You use some $A\mathbf{x}$ where matrix $A$ represents some linear map.
Clearly:
$$ A \mathbf{x} = AUU^{-1}\mathbf{x} = AU \mathbf{z}$$
That is, it's entirely equivalent to use:
- linear transformation $A$ and vector $\mathbf{x}$ written in the original basis
- linear transformation $AU$ and vector $\mathbf{z}$ written in the new basis
You can see though that this wouldn't hold for non-linear transformations.
Simple example: OLS regression
Model is:
$$y_i = \mathbf{x}_i \cdot \boldsymbol{\beta} + \epsilon_i$$
OLS estimate:
$$ \mathbf{b}_x = (X'X)^{-1}(X'\mathbf{y})$$
With data in new basis: $Z = X{U'}^{-1}$
$$ \begin{align*}
\mathbf{b}_z &= (Z'Z)^{-1}(Z'\mathbf{y}) \\
&= \left( U^{-1}X'X {U'}^{-1} \right) ^{-1} {U^{-1}X' \mathbf{y} }\\
&= U' \left( X'X \right) ^{-1} U U^{-1}X' \mathbf{y} \\
&= U' \left( X'X \right) ^{-1} X' \mathbf{y} \\
&= U' \mathbf{b}_x \\
\end{align*} $$
Keep going and the residuals will be the same etc... You have the same predictive power and the estimated coefficients are related by the change in basis.