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I have a dataset that contains the distance (in cm) between the emission point and the interaction point of about 50 000 fluorescence X-rays. When I plot its histogram, I should expect an exponential probability density function. In Python, I would like to recover the parameters of this pdf using scipy.stats.expon.fit() and test the goodness of this fit using a Kolmogorov-Smirnov test (with scipy.stats.expon.kstest()). However, everytime I try to test my fit, a get a p-value of 0.0, which seems to indicate that the null hypothesis should be rejected (ie. that my data doesn't follow an exponential pdf), but when I plot both the histogram and the fitted pdf, it seems alright.

Here are the details.

My full dataset looks like this (normed; zoomed on the right): Dataset

As you can see, the histogram doesn't go to 0 because of the resolution of my pixelated detector (it won't recognize the emission and the absorption of the X-ray if they happens in adjacent pixels, which are about 55*55 micrometers). However, it shouldn't be a problem since the fit also returns the loc parameter and because I'm mostly interested in the scale parameter (to get the mean free path of the X-rays).

Also, I have a lot of noise, and it especially affects the tail of the distribution. So I don't really want the fit to be precise for higher values, really what I care about is the decreasing rate of the distribution for small values.

So let's say that I loaded my 50 000 values in an array called data. Here's what I tried:

>>> import numpy as np
>>> import scipy.stats as scp
>>> loc,scale=scp.expon.fit(data[np.where(data<0.1)]) #Fit the left part of the distrib.
>>> scp.kstest(data[np.where(data<0.1)],"expon",args=(loc,scale)) #KS Test
(0.11032993451965302, 0.0)

So here's the 0.0 p-value. However, if I compare the fit and the dataset graphically, it doesn't seem so bad:

>>> import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
>>> plt.hist(data[np.where(data<0.1)], bins=150, normed=True, histtype="step")
>>> x=np.linspace(0,0.1,200)
>>> y=scp.expon.pdf(x,loc,scale)
>>> plt.plot (x,y)
>>> plt.show()

graphical comparison of the fit and the dataset

I think that the problem is that I try to fit only part of the probability density function and that the KS test checks for the presence of the tail. Any solution? Is there another test I should use? I'm no statistician, I've never really made a fit for a continuous pdf before, I don't know if KS test is the best choice or if I use it correctly. Thanks!

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    $\begingroup$ First of all, KS test is not (really) appropriate in cases where parameters of the distribution are estimated from the data as in such cases the KS statistic is no longer distribution-free and the usual tabulated critical values are inaccurate. Secondly, I believe that KS is likely to produce 0 p-values when there is a large number of observations, which seems to be the situation in your case with 50,000 data points. Since models are never really exact representations of the phenomena, given enough data points, statistical tests will find any "small" differences form the model and reject it. $\endgroup$ – Confounded May 13 '18 at 22:37

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