I have made a model which is supposed to classify the trend of a stock index as an "up day" (=1) or a "no change"/"down day"(=0), where I have coded an "up day" as when the percent change for the index today is > 0. The model has been trained and validated on data where I know if the index has been a 1 or a 0.
However, I want to apply my model to days where I don't know the direction of today's market. How would I go about solving this? Any advice is much appreciated :) Also, first question on this forum (have been a reader for some time, finally took the step right? :))
My model looks like the following:
direction ~ Bo+B1x1+...+B19x19, where direction = 1 if index > 0, 0 otherwise
B1 to B5 are lagged variables of the index I want to predict and the rest is variables with closing time before or after the index of interest.
Since I don't know the direction of the index today, I don't have anything to predict(?)