Say I am predicting swimming times. I get a group of 20 to make predictions on the fastest to slowest swimmers from 1 to 6. I then ask a single expert in swimming to make the same predictions. Is there a way to test statistical significance between the group's predictions versus the expert's?
"significant" would mean if I were to select a random person from the group there's a very low percent he would predict in the same order as the expert.
We rank 1 to 6 the swimmers who received the highest to lowest average predictions (10 people predict swimmer 1 to get first, 10 predict swimmer 1 to get second, no one predicts swimmer to get other; his average is then 1.5, average of the predictions. We do this for every swimmer and rank the first 6 according to average). Now we have our top 6 from the group, how would I determine significance (as defined above) of an expert's prediction on the same swimmers.