# Zero-inflated GLMM: correct use of AIC and comparing levels of fixed factor

I am struggling with a ZIGLMM in R. I have a data set on freshwater plant propagules (response variable) and the relation with the ecological state of ponds. Pond state is a categorical factor with three levels. I have three measurements (propagule counts per liter sediment) per pond, hence the mixed model with pond as a random factor. Based on histograms and the assumption of dispersal barriers creating excess zeros, I suspect a zero-inflated model suits my data best.

I am using package glmmadmb as described by Bolker et al. 2012 (“Owls example”):

Propagules <- glmmadmb(formula = Propagules ~ Category + (1|Pond), data = ZIGLMM.input, family = "nbinom", zeroInflation = TRUE)

AIC: 483.9

Coefficients:
Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)
(Intercept)             3.355      0.237   14.13   <2e-16 ***
CategoryClear/low SM   -2.292      0.648   -3.54   0.0004 ***
CategoryTurbid        -17.116    316.930   -0.05   0.9569
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


I have a number of questions:

• Could AIC be used to compare different models with identical factor complexity? I mean, to select between e.g. a Poisson or Negative Binomial distributed model? Or is AIC only relevant when shopping through models with different complexity in terms of number of included factors? Also, would QAIC be a better choice?
• Graphically (see below), I am not convinced there is no significant difference between ecological state ‘Clear/High SM’ (i.e. my reference) and ‘Turbid’ state. Am I seeing this wrong? I guess the correction for zero-inflation makes the use of box plots less recommended? I have the impression that the large Standard Error for ‘Turbid’ results from a few (ecologically relevant) outliers.
• How can I change my reference level in order to compare ‘Clear/low SM’ with ‘Turbid’? Should I use Tukey tests as included in the multcomp package? I’m guessing this is not a valid approach for ZIGLMM. I tried adjusting the category names to switch the alphabetical order, but it didn’t work.

Thank you very much for any kind advice.