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I am working on analyzing a set of high resolution images and I was wondering what would be the most statistically valid method to test, whether the object 'x' is in the centre of the circle (diamond is a tolerant area) and the second step should be to estimate the likelihood that this object will be off-centered under a certain condition. I was thinking of an Bayesian model but I am not sure how to apply it on images.

For illustration purposes I attached a sketch:

enter image description here

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