I'm currently watching the USA elections and I'm wondering how the confidence is calculated.
So let us say we have a state of 500,000 inhabitants; 5,000 votes have been counted and 80% (4,000 votes) are for candidate A. How can I calculate the probability that candidate A won the state (i.e. binomial model probability > 0.5)? I feel I should use a binomial distribution, however this does not account for the population size.
How can I calculate this correctly without using simulations?