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If I had a data set, $A = \{5,6,8,4,2\}$ then computing the mean and the standard deviation is quite simple. This set has a mean, $\bar{x} = 5$ and a standard deviation, $\sigma = 2$.

But what if I had errors on all the samples in the data set, like so $$B = \{5 \pm 1, 6 \pm 1, 8 \pm 3, 4 \pm2, 2\pm 4\}$$

How do I compute the mean and standard deviation for this data set while taking the errors of the samples into account?

It can't possibly be the same, can it? Because the generic formulas for computing mean and standard deviation would just ignore the uncertainties/errors on the samples in the data set.

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  • $\begingroup$ I forget. When you write $5\pm1$, does that mean the correct measurement is between 4 and 6 95% of the time? 90% of the time? $\endgroup$
    – Bill
    Commented Dec 13, 2016 at 13:54
  • $\begingroup$ Yes, it represents a $1 \sigma$ error. $\endgroup$
    – XYZT
    Commented Dec 13, 2016 at 21:24

3 Answers 3

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This answer will assume your errors are standard deviations.

If you have a data set $x_1,\ldots,x_n$, then we can define the discrete mean and variance as $$\langle{x}\rangle\equiv\frac{1}{n}\sum_ix_i \,,\,\hat{\sigma}^2\equiv\langle{x^2}\rangle-\langle{x}\rangle^2$$ which means $$\langle{x}\rangle{n}=\sum_ix_i \,,\, \langle{x^2}\rangle{n}=\sum_ix_i^2$$

Now imagine your data is really giving $$X_k\pm{\Delta}X_k=\langle{x}\rangle_k\pm\hat{\sigma}_k$$ where the "subsample size" $n_k$ is unknown.

Then we have $$\langle{x}\rangle_k=X_k \,,\, \langle{x^2}\rangle_k={\Delta}X_k^2-\langle{x}\rangle_k^2$$ And the aggregate statistics can be computed via $$\langle{X}\rangle=\frac{1}{N}\sum_kX_kn_k \,,\, \langle{X^2}\rangle=\frac{1}{N}\sum_k(X_k^2+\Delta{X}_k^2)n_k \,,\, N=\sum_kn_k$$ from which you can compute $$\hat{\sigma}_X^2=\langle{X^2}\rangle-\langle{X}\rangle^2$$

For simplicity you could take $n_k=1$.

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If your "errors" are standard deviations, you should use a weighted mean, where the weights are the inverse of the data variances, and compute the variance of the weighted mean. For the formulae, cf. Wikipedia. This results from the law of uncertainty propagation (Wikipedia)

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Yes, the typical approach will not necessarily be the best estimate.

You are saying that there is a random variable, $x$, that is IID with some mean $\bar{x}$ and std.dev. $\sigma$. However, there is noise added to $x$, so that the observed variable is $y = x + e$, where $e$ is the error term.

If you know (or are willing to assume) something about $e$, then you can get a little further. E.g. if you assume that $e \sim N(0,\sigma_e^2)$, and you are willing to assume that $x \sim N(0,\sigma^2)$, then we know that $y \sim N(0,\sigma_y^2)$ (because the sum of two normals will be normal), where $\sigma_y^2 = \sigma^2 + \sigma_e^2$. Hence, we can estimate $\sigma_y^2$ and then subtract the assumed $\sigma_e^2$ and we have $\sigma^2$.

But in general, if you do not make any more assumptions, then it is hard to say more than probably, the variance in the underlying process will be smaller than the variance in the observed one. But it could also be larger, e.g. if the added noise, $e$ above, is negatively correlated with the realization.

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