I've a doubt in the application of the exponential smoothing for pure forecasts. I'm using this type of model in these days, for the automatization of some algorithms. This time i'm working on non-seasonal data, year population, but the fitted value of my models seems shifted in some cases, as in this example:
How can i solve this shift of the fitted values (in red)? the forecast works very good, but sometime i have this strange result. Thanks a lot.