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I'm trying to find the probability that someone will return a product they purchased given a certain amount of days that have passed since their initial purchase.

For example, assuming a normal distribution and that I have 60 samples, with a S.D. = 34 days and Mean = 55 days, how can I determine the probability that someone will return a product given that they have kept it for 20 days?

How would I formulate this problem? I can calculate the Z-Score but I'm not sure where to go from there - is there some sort of model or distribution that I should look into?

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    $\begingroup$ You might have luck if you look into survival analysis. $\endgroup$ – Sean Easter Apr 24 '17 at 17:40
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What @SeanEaster says. What would you model with the normal distribution? If you are modeling the number of days before the product is returned, then what do you do with products that are not returned? This kind of model won't be helpful.

Look into survival analysis.

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