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From Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Residual_sum_of_squares, the RSS is the average squared error between true value $y$, and the predicted value $\hat y$.

Then according to: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_sum_of_squares, the TSS is the squared error between the true value $y$, and the average of all $y$.


However, I don't understand this line under the explanation for TSS:

[...] the total sum of squares equals the explained sum of squares plus the residual sum of squares.


If we plot RSS on the graph, it would look like:

enter image description here


TSS Plot:

enter image description here


ESS Plot:

enter image description here


According to the images, the residual (unexplained) value is actually larger than the TSS. Is there something I'm not following?

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2 Answers 2

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You have the total sum of squares being $\displaystyle \sum_i ({y}_i-\bar{y})^2$

which you can write as $\displaystyle \sum_i ({y}_i-\hat{y}_i+\hat{y}_i-\bar{y})^2 $

i.e. as $\displaystyle \sum_i ({y}_i-\hat{y}_i)^2+2\sum_i ({y}_i-\hat{y}_i)(\hat{y}_i-\bar{y}) +\sum_i(\hat{y}_i-\bar{y})^2$ where

  • the first summation term is the residual sum of squares,
  • the second is zero (if not then there is correlation, suggesting there are better values of $\hat{y}_i$) and
  • the third is the explained sum of squares

Since you have sums of squares, they must be non-negative and so the residual sum of squares must be less than the total sum of squares

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  • $\begingroup$ Hi, thanks for your answer. It may be a bit too late, but can you elaborate on how the 2nd term means mathematically? Looking at the equation, I don't think I can come up with the conclusion that it needs to be 0. Thanks again! $\endgroup$ Mar 9, 2017 at 7:50
  • $\begingroup$ Can I say this for the second term: For linear regression, the amount we over estimate and under estimate is zero, so when we sum $y_i$-$\hat y_i$, we will get 0? $\endgroup$ Mar 9, 2017 at 18:29
  • $\begingroup$ Yes you should get $0$ since the average of each should be $\bar{y}$ and so they have the same sums. But my point is subtly different: the residuals should be uncorrelated with the predicted values as a direct result of the linear regression $\endgroup$
    – Henry
    Mar 9, 2017 at 18:35
  • $\begingroup$ Thanks for your reply again! I don't see a connection between "the residuals should be uncorrelated with the predicted values as a direct result of the linear regression" with any of the terms (1, 2, and 3). Can you give me some hints? Thanks $\endgroup$ Mar 9, 2017 at 18:44
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    $\begingroup$ $\sum_i ({y}_i-\hat{y}_i)(\hat{y}_i-\bar{y})$ is the covariance of the residuals and the predicted values. Try an ordinary least squares regression and see that it is zero $\endgroup$
    – Henry
    Mar 9, 2017 at 21:15
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This chart was very helpful for me. enter image description here

Via

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    $\begingroup$ could you please reference chart? $\endgroup$ Aug 3, 2018 at 11:39
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    $\begingroup$ Excellent explanation! Thank you! $\endgroup$
    – Beginner
    Nov 19, 2021 at 16:33

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