I am running some simulations, it seems when I consider my data (multivariate residuals of a VAR model) happen to be observing an ARCH effect. However, when I split them into two dataset I failed to prove that either of them has ARCH effect. How come when I put both data set together the multivariate random variable might witness an ARCH effect?
I am using R. My 2 dimension residuals is defined as resi
TEsting for ARCH effect for the first column results in
# Testing ARCH effects for univariate residuals resi
y1=resi[,1]
var=(y1-mean(y1))^2
Box.test(var,lag=26,type='Ljung')
Outcome:
Box-Ljung test
data: var
X-squared = 31.929, df = 26, p-value = 0.1955
Second column
y2=resi[,2]
var=(y2-mean(y2))^2
Box.test(var,lag=26,type='Ljung')
Outcome:
Box-Ljung test
data: var
X-squared = 28.001, df = 26, p-value = 0.3584
Testing both together
library("MTS")
MarchTest(resi) # Multivariate ARCH test
results in
Q(m) of squared series(LM test):
Test statistic: 9.761321 p-value: 0.4616771
Rank-based Test:
Test statistic: 69.60412 p-value: 5.286682e-11
Q_k(m) of squared series:
Test statistic: 51.92913 p-value: 0.09796701
Robust Test(5%) : 78.21383 p-value: 0.0002854892