I have got a dataset of daily rainfall data (mm) from different hydrological gauges. The observed time period is not fixed, and therefore the gauges' time series have different lengths (i.e. 10, 23, 50, 110 years) I selected a threshold u = 99th percentile and I would like to know:
What is the probability of a peak over threshold event happening in a given year (365 days)?
With annual maximum (AMAX) data p = 1/365 as per AMAX definition, i.e. one event per year but with POT data I can theoretically have one POT event per day.
Should I count the number of POT events in that particular year and divide them by 365? e.g. 40 POT events in a year, probability of one POT event in the same year p = 40/365 = 0.11
Is this right? If not, how would you approach the question? Thanks