# How to combine odds of an event happening with effects of said event

I have run an ordinal logistic regression. To keep it simple and to the point, I have found that customers with whom we perform a particular sales event are 1.5x more likely to upgrade. Of the customers who have upgraded, through linear regression I have found that they are willing to pay $10 more for said upgrade than the ones who have not had the sales event. If I wanted to say something like: for each customer on which we perform the sales event we will obtain$XX more in revenue (due to them upgrading AND paying more than the standard customers), how would I calculate it?

It is more or less combining the odds ratio with the additional revenue, but I do not know how to calculate what the combined effect is here.

Any pointers would be appreciated.

## 1 Answer

(I'm assuming if they don't upgrade, you make $\$0$.) This is really quite straightforward. If every customer you give your sales pitch to has a$p$probability of upgrading, and each upgrade will net you, on average, an extra$\$10$, then you expect to make, on average:
\begin{align} d &= 10p\qquad \text{(per person)} \\ d &= 10Np\quad \,\text{(total)} \end{align} where $d$ is dollars, and $N$ is the number of customers you give your sales pitch.