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I have a time series data of monthly sales for the last 4 years. The sales for one month eg Feb 2017 is much higher same month last year or the last month sales of Jan 2017.

If i wanted to detect if this was only due to random chance which test is advised

Thanks

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Identify an ARIMA model using all the data and then add an indicator series for the last point (0,1) to your model. Compute the t value associated with that pulse indicator. Convert the t value to a p value and you have your answer. If the value you are trying to test is the last value then you might exclude it from the ARIMA identification process.

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  • $\begingroup$ Could you elaborate please...on the steps required $\endgroup$ – Mazen Aug 19 '17 at 12:53
  • $\begingroup$ I am not sure what more i can write .Perhaps you can either call me or contact me via SKYPE and I will try and verbalize the steps. $\endgroup$ – IrishStat Aug 19 '17 at 13:33

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