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I have to forecast the future gold loan portfolio growth of a financial firm. I have past 36 month growth data.

I am planning to use Monte Carlo simulation to forecast, but growth is a deterministic process not a random process. How can I apply Monte Carlo for this situation?

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If your model is deterministic and no randomness or uncertainty, there’s no point with simulation because all your paths will be identical.

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  • $\begingroup$ Thanks a lot friend. I had better study detail about montecarlo. $\endgroup$ – Peter Oct 8 '17 at 16:39

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