I am wondering what the predictive distribution of a Dirichlet-Multinomial distribution is.
In this tutorial (page 24), the predictive density is simple and something like "pseudo samples."
However, in this writeup, the predictive density is rather complicated.
I can walk through the latter formula, but do not come to the former one. (It does work from my side for multinoulli/categorical distributions, but not multinomial with N>2).
Can anyone give some references? Thanks a lot.