Here is what I have:
- Yearly energy prices by state from 2002 (generally increasing, generally peaked a couple of years ago)
- Yearly energy consumption by state by industry from 2008 (about 700 state/industry combinations; various patterns, from clear trends to sawtooth)
I want to get a rough, quick and dirty estimate of in which state-industry dyads are increasing energy prices likely to be causing a reduction in energy demand since 2015.
However, there are a few confounding issues, including that the GFC around 2008 would depress energy use, energy consumption is driven by many things other than price, and that many industries have been getting more energy efficient over time. Also, since about 2015 the average energy supply contract duration has shrunk from 3-5 years to 6-12 months. This means that I would expect to see a sharper drop in energy use since 2015. How can I check for this?
I'm not sure how to control for these issues with what I have.
Can I just regress energy use against price for each state-industry dyad and check the p-value for the slope? Or is there a better way to do this?