I'm looking for a risk analysis book with citations from academic backgrounds that focuses on shocks and the unknown. Looking for a Taleb alternative I'm less than ... enthusiastic about some of Taleb's claims regarding, say, the paleo diet. I make no comment on his political content, but I want someone more factual and hard, and less prone to controversy and drama. I make no comment on Taleb's content herein as all I am saying is that I want someone different from his style, yet deals with the same overarching and broad content.
I'm looking for a well-referenced popular risk book that deals with dealing with the unexpected and shocks. Is there such a thing? This book would ideally have (a) mirror(s) in mathematical language and risk analysis papers.
Taleb discusses statistics here:--
(https://econpapers.repec.org/article/besamstat/v_3a61_3ay_3a2007_3am_3aaugust_3ap_3a198-200.htm)
Content I have consumed:


*

*https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nassim_Nicholas_Taleb

*https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Risk_analysis

*https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antifragility

*The Black Swan

*Bed of Procrustes

*Fooled by Randomness

*Antifragile
 A: Aaron Brown's Red-Blooded Risk might be interesting to you. It has lots of references for further reading, and the ideas extend beyond the world of finance. However, it may not have enough actual equations/proofs - if that's what you're after.
Also perhaps worth looking at is Peters and Gell-Mann's 'Evaluating gambles using dynamics'. Whilst focused on evaluating and optimizing 'bets' it provides a good background on the history of 'risk taking' and how a lot of it is perhaps being done incorrectly - ignoring of path dependence, conflation of time and state averages, etc. 
A: I suggest taking a look at Merton’s credit-risk model that came out in the 1970s:--


"The Merton model is an analysis model – named after economist Robert C. Merton – that is used to assess the credit risk of a company's debt. Analysts at brokerage firms and investors utilize the Merton model to understand how capable a company is at meeting financial obligations, servicing its debt and weighing the general possibility that the company will go into credit default. This model was later built out by Fischer Black and Myron Scholes to develop the Black-Scholes pricing model." 
“Merton Model.” Investopedia, 8 Nov. 2006, www.investopedia.com/terms /m/mertonmodel.asp. 

Read more: Merton Model (https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/mertonmodel.asp#ixzz5BYlVjuFV)

This paper links Merton-models to probability theory.


Tudela, Merxe, and Garry Young. "A Merton-model approach to assessing the default risk of UK public companies." International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance 8.06 (2005): 737-761.
Read More: Merton Model (https://www.worldscientific.com/doi/abs/10.1142/S0219024905003256)


