3
$\begingroup$

I have 183 percentages based on the accuracy of a price prediction. (If I predict something will sell at 100, and it sells at 100, then I have sold at 100% of the prediction.) 16 times, the percentage was < 85%. I would like to know how to determine the probability of 100% of the percentages from another similar population would be < 85%. In other words, what is the likelihood that the next group of assets I buy (chosen from the same population) would ALL be under 85% actual price / target price?

$\endgroup$

1 Answer 1

-1
$\begingroup$

I believe this is:

$$ \bigg(\frac{16}{183}\bigg)^n , $$

where $n$ is size of new group.

$\endgroup$
4
  • $\begingroup$ This does not provide an answer to the question. To critique or request clarification from an author, leave a comment below their post. - From Review $\endgroup$ Mar 26, 2018 at 9:44
  • $\begingroup$ I'm unsure why this is not an acceptable answer? The question is "what is the likelihood that the next group of assets I buy would ALL be under 85% actual price / target price?" Happy to delete if I misunderstood something... $\endgroup$
    – tea_pea
    Mar 26, 2018 at 12:40
  • $\begingroup$ I think he means 85% of the predicted value, not 85% probability. For an answer we would needv to know the distribution of prices, but we dont. So if you now agree in this, you could delete. $\endgroup$ Mar 26, 2018 at 12:56
  • $\begingroup$ It's a confusingly worded question, but after a second read I stand by my answer: 16 of the 183 samples fell below the 85% threshold. Assuming future groups are taken from the same population, each item has a 16/183 chance of being <85%. so then just needs to be raised to the power of the size of the new group. $\endgroup$
    – tea_pea
    Mar 26, 2018 at 13:26

Your Answer

By clicking “Post Your Answer”, you agree to our terms of service and acknowledge you have read our privacy policy.

Not the answer you're looking for? Browse other questions tagged or ask your own question.