I have 183 percentages based on the accuracy of a price prediction. (If I predict something will sell at 100, and it sells at 100, then I have sold at 100% of the prediction.) 16 times, the percentage was < 85%. I would like to know how to determine the probability of 100% of the percentages from another similar population would be < 85%. In other words, what is the likelihood that the next group of assets I buy (chosen from the same population) would ALL be under 85% actual price / target price?


I believe this is:

$$ \bigg(\frac{16}{183}\bigg)^n , $$

where $n$ is size of new group.

  • $\begingroup$ This does not provide an answer to the question. To critique or request clarification from an author, leave a comment below their post. - From Review $\endgroup$ Mar 26 '18 at 9:44
  • $\begingroup$ I'm unsure why this is not an acceptable answer? The question is "what is the likelihood that the next group of assets I buy would ALL be under 85% actual price / target price?" Happy to delete if I misunderstood something... $\endgroup$
    – tea_pea
    Mar 26 '18 at 12:40
  • $\begingroup$ I think he means 85% of the predicted value, not 85% probability. For an answer we would needv to know the distribution of prices, but we dont. So if you now agree in this, you could delete. $\endgroup$ Mar 26 '18 at 12:56
  • $\begingroup$ It's a confusingly worded question, but after a second read I stand by my answer: 16 of the 183 samples fell below the 85% threshold. Assuming future groups are taken from the same population, each item has a 16/183 chance of being <85%. so then just needs to be raised to the power of the size of the new group. $\endgroup$
    – tea_pea
    Mar 26 '18 at 13:26

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