# What is an example of an event for which frequentist probability doesn't apply?

I'm on the hunt for an example to illustrate the difference between frequentist and subjective Bayesian probability. In particular, I'd like a type of event for which frequentist probability doesn't make sense.

This is the example I have: What is the probability that it will rain on March 14th, 2018 in London UK?

As far as I know, there can be no long-run relative frequency for this event. One could, of course, approximate this by asking "The probability it will rain on any March 14th in London UK", but as far as I can tell that is different.

Does this example make sense? Is there a better one?

• Mar 12, 2018 at 21:50
• Why do you think Bayesian applies here? Think about it for a moment. I can reject your Bayesian probability on the same exact grounds you rejected what you called frequentist forecast. Mar 13, 2018 at 0:47
• Perhaps something like "what is the probability that George Washington died in 1801?" This, give or take a little, is an example that I learned in a Foundations of Bayesian Statistics many, many years ago. You can certainly construct a bet on it, implying there's a subjective probability, but hard to see how you'd construct a frequentist probability out of a past event that is known to have happened / not happened, just not by you. Apr 7, 2018 at 21:14