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I would like to forecast for next 2 months using 1 year data captured at monthly level.

sample of the data

  1. 201702 7
  2. 201703 1344
  3. 201704 1311
  4. 201705 2645
  5. 201706 8581
  6. 201707 7271
  7. 201708 11550
  8. 201709 11372
  9. 201710 7089
  10. 201711 10677
  11. 201712 9147
  12. 201801 2992

first column indicated month, second column indicates demand of product. I have used time series like arima, ets, ma all of them over fit. Can you suggest some basic models that may solve the problem?

Thanks

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