Background: My son has been ill a few times this academic year and has missed some school. The authorities get involved when attendence is low, and they're basically suggesting he's malingering, which he's not.
So one of the things they're implying is that he's been off a suspicious number of Fridays. I'd like to produce some stats to show it's just a statistical fluke
The problem statement is something like:
Given a student could have attended school on N days, but was absent through illness on M of those days, what's the probability that they were absent for more than P Fridays.
As a follow up, what's the change that they were absent for more than P days for any one of the days of the week, not necessarily Friday.
Pointers to how to work this out for myself also welcomed.