5
$\begingroup$

I wonder if anyone knows why it is that we treat study standard errors as known when conducting a meta-analysis? When conducting analysis of trial data, the error is treating as a quantity to be estimated (at least in the Bayesian code I've seen). In a meta-analysis however, we might say:

y[i]  ~ N(delta,sigma[i])
delta ~ N(u,tau)

leaving sigma as data instead of identifying it as a parameter. Is there a reason for this? Would we just never get stable estimates? Are there any consequences to this approach (i.e., underestimating uncertainty?)

$\endgroup$
3
  • $\begingroup$ I think there is a typo in your formula. $\endgroup$
    – mdewey
    Commented Apr 10, 2018 at 15:23
  • 3
    $\begingroup$ This is because meta-analysis uses the aggregated data. If the meta-analysis is performed using a random effect model, the estimate of between-study heterogeneity is produced in response to the amount of errors estimated from analysis of trial data. I think your code should be changed. (y[i] ~ N(u,sigma) -> y[i] ~ N(u,sigma[i]), sigma[i] was data which was extracted from the original article along with y[i].) $\endgroup$
    – J-H Yoon
    Commented Apr 11, 2018 at 1:16
  • 1
    $\begingroup$ @J-HYoon, why not turn that into an official answer? Otherwise this Q looks unanswered. $\endgroup$ Commented Apr 11, 2018 at 13:44

2 Answers 2

2
$\begingroup$

(This answer is the same as the comment.)

This is because meta-analysis uses the aggregated data. If the meta-analysis is performed using a random effect model, the estimate of between-study heterogeneity is produced in response to the amount of errors estimated from analysis of trial data. I think your code should be changed: y[i] ~ N(u,sigma) should read y[i] ~ N(u,sigma[i]), where sigma[i] was data which was extracted from the original article along with y[i].

$\endgroup$
0
$\begingroup$

It's much easier -- especially back in the days before modern computing -- and it's a pretty good approximation, because small differences in the uncertainties don't have much impact on the final result.

Here's an example. Start with the meta-analysis that's in the logo of the Cochrane collaboration enter image description here

Now adjust the standard errors for each trial by multiplying by independent $U[0.8,1.2]$, changing them up or down by up to 20%. Re-do the meta-analysis. These are the confidence intervals from 100 replications (on the log odds ratio scale)

enter image description here

Even a 20% error in the SE doesn't make a big difference to the overall meta-analysis. So people didn't worry.

Now that meta-analysis can easily model the uncertainties in the standard errors it's probably worth doing, but there were good reasons not to worry too much in the past.

$\endgroup$

Your Answer

By clicking “Post Your Answer”, you agree to our terms of service and acknowledge you have read our privacy policy.

Not the answer you're looking for? Browse other questions tagged or ask your own question.