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Is it possible to use the R package CausalImpact (Brodersen et. al, 2015) to estimate the incremental lift of running a local TV ad campaign in Iowa City,IA? We are also running national TV ads across the USA including Iowa City,IA.

The Brodersen et al. paper explains the use of the package along with Geo experiments, where multiple treated DMAs are summed up into a single treated unit, but there isn't any clarity in cases where we just have one treated DMA.

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closed as off-topic by Michael Chernick, Peter Flom Apr 18 '18 at 12:07

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You can simply use the sales in the other DMAs as predictor time series. Another related approach to this problem is the synthetic cohort method. Both methods assume that your local advertising campaign does not spill over to the other DMAs that you are using as predictors or potential synthetic cohort donors.

Often people will remove nearby geos from the set of predictors or potential synthetic cohort donors to check robustness to this assumption.

This also assumes that the national campaign does not vary in intensity too much across the DMAs that don't have the local campaign in the same unit of time.

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You can check out this paper, that exploited the varying geographic intensities of Sesame Street broadcast signals on resulting literacy rates. They used the cohort before the intervention as a control, I believe.

http://www.nber.org/papers/w21229

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