I have fit time series data to two models using SPSS. Their BIC values are as follows:
Normalised BIC, Winters: -.111, ARIMA: .048
I understand I must pick the lowest BIC value as this tells us the best model.
I am wondering how to interpret positive vs negative values:
I have read that the "lowest BIC value" is the best, but this usually compares two positive values, or two negative values. In this case is -.111 BIC value lower than 0.48? Or should I treat these differently as they are positive and negative?