I have time series data and I used an $ARIMA(p,d,q)+X_t$ as the model to fit the data. The $X_t$ is an indicator random variable that is either 0 (when I don’t see a rare event) or 1 (when I see the rare event). Based on previous observations that I have for $X_t$ , I can develop a model for $X_t$ using Variable Length Markov Chain methodology. This enables me to simulate the $X_t$ over the forecasting period and gives a sequence of zeros and ones. Since this is a rare event, I will not see $X_t=1$ often. I can forecast and obtain the prediction intervals based on the simulated values for $X_t$.
How can I develop an efficient simulation procedure to take into account the occurrence of 1’s in the simulated $X_t$ over the forecasting period? I need to obtain the mean and the forecasting intervals.
The probability of observing 1 is too small for me to think that the regular Monte Carlo simulation will work well in this case. Maybe I can use “importance sampling”, but I am not sure exactly how.