In my system, my users will perform a set of actions in order to accomplish a task. As each action applies a load to my server, I would like to forecast potential load spikes.
The actions will always happen in order, but the time between each action is up to the user. The same action may occur more than once in an action-set.
I would like to be able to use previous behaviour by a user to predict when they will next perform an action (and whether it will be the same action or the next in sequence) and aggregate this data to forecast total load. The first action in the set doesn't have to be predicted, but It'd be helpful if it could be.
Not being a statistician, I believe I have all the data here to make useful predictions, but I have no idea what sort of algorithm/model to use. What model would be appropriate for the information given?