I've been using the CausalImpact package to compare patent renewal rates across different classes of patents (to determine whether subject matter decisions have particular impacts on the rise or fall of certain patent classes). Using the data that I have, I performed a CausalImpact analysis with the following posterior tail-area probability and probability of a causal effect:

Posterior tail-area probability p:   0.18919
Posterior prob. of a causal effect:  81%

Obviously this result is not statistically significant, so how should I frame my findings? Should I say that there are factors aside from case law changes that are having an impact on renewal rates? Thank you.


I´d say that the change you have performed does not have a direct influence on the development of the data series in post-period. In other words, if the change did not take place the development would be the same or just very very similar.


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