I'm an economics student who's trying to dive into causality. I've tried looking into intervention analysis, but I can't seem to find many sources on forecasting using historical data as an approach.
I'm trying to infer causality based on an intervention event.
E.g. I own a store, and run a promotion for 2 weeks.
Can I build a forecast using historical sales data and use it as a counterfactual to measure the impact of my promotion (compared forecasted sales vs actual observed sales)? What are the flaws in this approach?