1
$\begingroup$

If I wish to run a FHS for VaR model, first I estimate the GARCH model on the historical returns $r_{t}$, then I obtain the historical innovation time series as $z_{t}=\frac{r_{t}}{\sigma_{t}}$, where $\sigma_{t}$ is the volatility estimated by GARCH.

Setting then $\sigma_{0}$ and $r_{0}$ as the volatility and log return of the last day of my historical sample, I estimate the GARCH daily variance on day 1 of risk horizon as
$\sigma_1^2=\gamma+\alpha r_0^2+ \beta\sigma_0^2$ and $r_1=z_1 \sigma_0^2$,

where $z_1$ is simulated through statistical bootstrap from the previous historical innovation time series.. Then the simulated log return over a risk horizon of h days is the sum $r_1 +..+r_h$: I do it thousand of times, resembling a distribution on which computing the VaR.

My question are:

  1. If the original historical return $r_t$ present autocorrelation, should I first model them through AR model and THEN run the GARCH model redoing the above mentioned steps?
  2. Is it improper to call the innovation residuals?
  3. If the innovations are not i.i.d, should I model them with AR in mean equation of GARCH?
$\endgroup$

Your Answer

By clicking “Post Your Answer”, you agree to our terms of service, privacy policy and cookie policy

Browse other questions tagged or ask your own question.