# Special Case Probability

Suppose there exists an ideal system in which you have perfect data 100% c.i. This data tells you that the price of gasoline will move a distance (not displacement) of +/- 10% in the next 7 calendar days with a 70% probability.

On day 1 the price of gasoline is $1.00. In the following days from 1-6 the price is in flux and arrives at precisely$1.00 on day 6.

Your data tells you that gasoline will move a distance of +/- 3% in 1 day with 70% probability.

Are both of these probabilities still valid? The 7 day and the 1 day? If yes, is there any edge that can be calculated when these special cases present themselves. Have the 7 day odds changed and is there less than a 70% chance of the +/- 10% move happening in one day? If so, please explain how/why to calculate these changes.

Please explain this at the level of basic statistics, as my education in statistics is not advanced in any way. Thank you.