Suppose there exists an ideal system in which you have perfect data 100% c.i. This data tells you that the price of gasoline will move a distance (not displacement) of +/- 10% in the next 7 calendar days with a 70% probability.
On day 1 the price of gasoline is $1.00.
In the following days from 1-6 the price is in flux and arrives at precisely $1.00 on day 6.
Your data tells you that gasoline will move a distance of +/- 3% in 1 day with 70% probability.
Are both of these probabilities still valid? The 7 day and the 1 day? If yes, is there any edge that can be calculated when these special cases present themselves. Have the 7 day odds changed and is there less than a 70% chance of the +/- 10% move happening in one day? If so, please explain how/why to calculate these changes.
What type of statistical analysis is this? I don't even know what to research to learn more about this - this would be quite helpful for my future education in this area.
Please explain this at the level of basic statistics, as my education in statistics is not advanced in any way. Thank you.