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Suppose I have a big county that has 10 farms. In the county, the planting of a crop could happen between March to April. I collected for a given year, the planting date of a crop across the 10 farms and the date of harvesting and the total rainfall between planting date and harvest date.

set.seed(123)
df <- data.frame(year = rep(2002:2008, each = 10),
                 farm.id = c(1:10), 
                 plant.date = sample(151:210, 70, replace = T), 
                 harvest.date = sample(220:270, 70, replace = T),
                 rainfall = sample(200:600, 70, replace = T))

I do not know the yield of each farm for each year. Instead I know the average yield across all the farms in each year

farm.yield <- data.frame(year = 2002:2008, avg.yield = sample(1800:4000, 7))

I am interested in writing a simple model that predicts average farm yield as a function of total rainfall. To do this, I calculate the average rainfall across all farms.

df.sum <- df %>% dplyr::group_by(year) %>% dplyr:::summarise(avg.rain = mean(rainfall), cv.rain = sd(rainfall)/avg.rain * 100)

final.dat <- farm.yield %>% dplyr::left_join(df.sum)    

and then I regress the avg.yield against avg. rainfall

lm(avg.yield ~ avg.rain, data = final.dat)

However, I am also interested in knowing the coefficient of variation around each prediction i.e. I expect years with high variability in rainfall among the 10 farms to also result in higher variability in avg yield. Since I do not know each farm's yield, how I can model such an effect? i.e. what tools I can use to model the variation around the avg.yield as a function of the variation around the
rainfall cv.rain

Also note that the data here will not result in any model since they are just made up data.

Thanks

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