# Why Does the $\propto$ Symbol Replace the $=$ Symbol When Using Bayes' Rule to Convert Posterior Density to Unnormalised Posterior Density?

My textbook says the following:

In order to make probability statements about $$\theta$$ given $$y$$, we must begin with a model providing a joint probability distribution for $$\theta$$ and $$y$$. The joint probability mass or density function can be written as a product of two densities that are often referred to as the prior distribution $$p(\theta)$$ and the sampling distribution (or data distribution) $$p(y|\theta)$$, respectively:

$$p(\theta, y) = p(\theta)p(y|\theta)$$

Simply conditioning on the known value of the data $$y$$, using the basic property of conditional probability known as Bayes' rule, yields the posterior density:

$$p(\theta|y) = \dfrac{p(\theta, y)}{p(y)} = \dfrac{p(\theta)p(y|\theta)}{p(y)}, \tag{1.1}$$

where $$p(y) = \sum_\theta p(\theta)p(y|\theta)$$, and the sum is over all possible values of $$\theta$$ (or $$p(y) = \int p(\theta) p(y | \theta) \ d\theta$$ in the case of continuous $$\theta$$). An equivalent form of (1.1) omits the factor $$p(y)$$, which does not depend on $$\theta$$ and, with fixed $$y$$, can thus be considered a constant, yielding the unnormalised posterior density, which is the right side of (1.2):

$$p(\theta|y) \propto p(\theta)p(y|\theta)$$

Page 7, Bayesian Data Analysis, Third Edition, by Gelman et al.

If we have

$$p(\theta|y) = \dfrac{p(\theta, y)}{p(y)} = \dfrac{p(\theta)p(y|\theta)}{p(y)} \tag{1.1},$$

then we can multiply through by $$p(y)$$ to get

$$p(\theta, y) = p(\theta)p(y|\theta).$$

So I'm wondering why we change the equals sign to a proportional ($$\propto$$) sign? Mathematically, why are we doing this? As I demonstrated above, there doesn't seem to be anything that algebraically indicates that that we must do this?

I would greatly appreciate it if people could please take the time to clarify this.

The equations$$p(\theta|y) \propto p(\theta)p(y|\theta)$$and$$p(\theta, y) = p(\theta)p(y|\theta)$$ differ by the multiplicative term$$p(y)^{-1}$$which is a constant when considering both sides of the equations as functions of $$\theta$$, $$y$$ being fixed since "observed". Both equations are correct from a mathematical perspective. The appeal of the "$$\propto$$" symbol is to state that the posterior density is proportional to the product of the prior by the likelihood function, i.e.,
$$\text{posterior } \propto \text{prior }\times\text{ likelihood}$$
which is usually available in closed form and hence can be used in numerical and Monte Carlo evaluations of the posterior. The proportionality is understood in terms of functions of $$\theta$$, not of $$y$$ or $$(\theta,y)$$. The marginal $$p(y)$$ is often not available in closed form.
• Ahh, I see now. Because if we multiply $$p(\theta|y) = \dfrac{p(\theta, y)}{p(y)} = \dfrac{p(\theta)p(y|\theta)}{p(y)}$$ through by $p(y)$, we get $$p(\theta|y) p(y) = p(\theta, y) = p(\theta)p(y|\theta).$$ And so we have the two equations $$p(\theta|y) p(y) = p(\theta)p(y|\theta)$$ and $$p(\theta, y) = p(\theta)p(y|\theta),$$ which differ by the multiplicative constant $p(y)$, which means that we have $$p(\theta|y) \propto p(\theta)p(y|\theta)$$ and $$p(\theta, y) = p(\theta)p(y|\theta),$$ since the first equation would be $$p(\theta|y) = p^{-1}(y) p(\theta)p(y|\theta),$$ [...] Nov 3, 2018 at 11:33
• [...] where the factor $p^{-1}(y)$ is a constant. Nov 3, 2018 at 11:33
• And since $$\int_{-\infty}^{\infty}P(\theta| y) = 1$$ we know $$\int_{-\infty}^{\infty}P(y) = \int_{-\infty}^{\infty}P(\theta)P(y| \theta)$$ Jun 21, 2019 at 17:28